Mr. Chairman, distinguished guests, and participants; I would like to express my gratitude to the World Civilizations Initiative Research Center for organizing this important gathering. Drawing upon four decades of diplomatic experience, I will present a semi-diplomatic, semi-academic perspective analyzed through three dimensions: the global, regional, and national spheres. Understanding the contemporary international order requires recognizing the fierce competition between neoliberal and realist paradigms, which has generated systemic instability, power struggles, and a chaotic transition period over the past fifteen years. Within this volatile landscape, non-state actors—particularly transnational corporations—have increasingly captured decision-making mechanisms.
Since 2014, the war in Ukraine, the intensifying global rivalry between the US and China, the spiraling Middle Eastern crisis triggered after October 7, and the aggressive posture against Iran have severely eroded global rules, norms, and institutions like the United Nations. Under a second Trump presidency, the Transatlantic framework faces profound strain as Washington openly adopts revisionist policies—viewing the Western Hemisphere as its backyard and making unilateral claims on Greenland and Canada. This total primacy of transactionalist power politics over shared values has destabilized global governance.
In this environment of systemic fragmentation, the role of “middle powers” or “swing states”—nations that resist alignment with any single bloc—warrants close observation as a potential force for new global balances. Furthermore, technological competition over artificial intelligence, semiconductors, rare earth elements, and space technologies has become a primary driver of global friction. Awakening from its long security slumber, Europe is attempting to bridge its conventional defense gap with the US by allocating over 800 billion euros toward military rearmament through 2030.
At the national level, Türkiye finds itself trapped between two major conflict fault lines: the ongoing war in Ukraine to its north and the destabilized Middle East to its south. Simultaneously facing domestic economic headwinds, Türkiye’s primary strategic challenge in US relations hinges on resolving the S-400 and F-35 impasses. Türkiye must resolutely safeguard the Montreux Convention as the anchor of Black Sea security, expedite the Middle Corridor via the South Caucasus, and navigate complex dynamics in the Eastern Mediterranean and Aegean. Maintaining balanced relations with Russia and China while actively shaping the evolving European security architecture is essential for Türkiye to minimize external dependencies and bolster national resilience.
